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Thread: Winning lotto - My secret formula revealed

  1. #91
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    If I spent my sunday afternoons working overtime instead of fucking around with $200 at the TAB, Id probably make more money than if I had the worlds best 'system'.

  2. #92
    Baked Dachi Benonymous's Avatar
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    Yehh, but working OT could hardly be descried as a hobby...

  3. #93
    cunning linguist lickmyleftone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benonymous View Post
    Yehh, but working OT could hardly be descried as a hobby...
    unless you're a manwhore.

  4. #94
    Scaramouch seedyrom's Avatar
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    I worked for 12 years at the TAB.
    I did spend my sunday afternoons "working" and watching punters at the same time.
    I also don't punt myself (bar my recent foray into lotto).

    Many LULz at those claiming that pro punters only exist at poker etc.

    Pro punters do not try and jag a one-off win. They play percentages. I've spoken with them about it. Benonymous' contact is right. Though he is only playing a system to win small. You need a large bankroll to support your bills etc, and need to understand that the govt is taking tax out at the rate applicable to the bet type. Win/Place tax rates are less than Trifecta. Pro punters arent stupid. Though you shouldn't confuse a pro punter with the smelly, wierd guy that hangs out at the TAB day in and day out.
    One I know was punting to achieve a return of 18% on his money, calculated daily. Sure he'd lose, its impossible to not, however you start with a large bankroll, make return on your investment quickly, and keep it going.

  5. #95
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    You worked at TAB for 12 years and you still havent worked out that 'feelings' are perhaps not a good factor in setting up a 'winning system'? You seem to know your system doesnt work with the rules of statistics, but you ignore it because you have some sort of vague dream.

    Find a random number generator, setup your system, run it through a few honest trials. See how well it goes.

    My rule of thumb with gambling is that if there is no genuine 'skill' involved, its obviously not within my control to win, at all, hence the house has a clear favour and the game is of no real interest to me. Blackjack/poker/etc, pending the specific house rules, do require some skill and the house advantage can be offset.

    It isnt possible to offset the house advantage with a lotto draw, and hence, it is a shit game. I still buy a ticket once or twice a year as a bit of fun, no system involved, I just buy random numbers. I put it to you that my system is better than yours.
    Last edited by Mr Ed; 09-07-12 at 12:03 PM.

  6. #96
    Registered User GSRman's Avatar
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    The only pro punter i know washes my windscreen every now and again on the way home.

  7. #97
    TOKEN AUSSIE BOGAN tut's Avatar
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    i buy a lottery ticket when there's a work pool. not because i feel like i want to win, but in the remote chance that we don't win, i don't want to be that one bum that didn't enter...

  8. #98
    Scaramouch seedyrom's Avatar
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    Its not gambling when you know you are going to win

  9. #99
    New Zealand bro Dave's Avatar
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    you have brain cancer, go see a doctor.

  10. #100
    Owns a Ferrari BeverlyHillsCop's Avatar
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    cliffs??

    Should I buy a lotto ticket this weekend or what?

  11. #101
    Registered User tipper's Avatar
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    Mate, everyone is right, this wont work and you are a goose. let me explain simple probability...

    if there are 48 numbers there is a 1 in 48 chance of that number coming up, then there is a 1 in 47, and so on. whehter you choose to use all number on one whole sheet (not in one game as could be interpeted) will not help at all as you need the 6 winning numbers in the same game. your theory wont work.

    there is no secret to winning as the odds of each ball are the same at any point in time.

    the only way you could win more is that if the numbers which win have more over 31. Sounds stupid but there are less winners in each division when the winning numbers are over 31 as people like to pick birthday for thier number hence less people having the same combination of numbers over 31 and a possibilty of a larger prize pool. this wont help you win any more often though.

  12. #102
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seedyrom View Post
    Its not gambling when you know you are going to win
    Bet you a $1,000 you dont win div 1 lotto this weekend.

    PS. ^ Now THAT isnt gambling.
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  13. #103
    . crack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by <---cop View Post
    Can this be stickyieded in the pool room as a warning for kids to pay attention in maths class and don't drink and type?
    10 + 10 x 0 = ?

  14. #104
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    Did a write up on a guy in the last year or so that reckons he wins around $500K on AFL betting each year. Doesn't bet on anything else, just AFL. I'm guessing that he knows the game, team & players inside out. But that seems to be a tidy little earner. Good on him if you can do it.

    As for horse betting. My Mum has a few racehorses so they have Sky Racing on pretty much all the time. So while I was up there recently and having lunch one day I started picking horses and I was doing pretty well. Similar to the system quoted ealier. No favourites, but good contenders with decent odds. Without putting any money down I picked a few winners and plenty of places, but as soon as I started throwing real money into the equation it all went to shit.

    Tried the same thing at the track one day while one of Mum's horses were racing. Gave myself a $100 budget to lose and ended up blowing the lot. Scored one win and a couple places but generally did shit. I don't think I'll be a professional punter anytime soon.

    One thing that stuck me was just how often the favourites don't win.

  15. #105
    Chopped BigMuz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benonymous View Post
    Just on gambling systems again. I was at the nopics christmas party last year. She organised it at Kembla Grange racecourse and it was a superb day all up. I got talking to the husband of one of the nopics colleagues who had been a serious hobby punter since he was in his teens. He explained his system to me that had basically returned him a profit every time he bet. His nopics backed him up so it wasn't just a "gamblers only remember their wins" situation. It was a pretty simple system.

    He never backed favourites instead, he'd back two or three horses for the win that had around ten to one odds, not blind, he researched the form. He would always back 13 for a win, subsequently he never bet on a race with less than 13 horses in it.

    He would spend an afternoon at the TAB or the pub placing his bets and work with a strict limit (I think around the $200 mark) His nopics told me that he'd furnished their first house using only his winnings. While we were at the Grange he bet on interstate races and ended the afternoon up $110. Not hugely successful but not making a loss.

    I've always meant to spend an afternoon trying his system out but have never got around to it, gambling holds practically no interest for me.
    Anyone whose system involves betting on number 13 is a moron.

  16. #106
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blownhemi View Post
    One thing that stuck me was just how often the favourites don't win.
    Yep, if the odds were relevant to the likelihood of winning, a horse paying 1:4 would still lose 75% of the time.

    Not how most people see it though apparently.
    Last edited by Mr Ed; 09-07-12 at 12:50 PM.

  17. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billzilla View Post
    FWIW some mates on Dr Karl's Science Forum worked out for me the number of system 20 games you'd have to play to virtually guarantee a win - It ended up being about two million dollar worth.
    2 mill wouldnt be that big of an outlay when div 1 is paying 30 you just have to gamble on less than 15 people winning... even with 15 winners you would still make a tidy profit on the div 2-6 is it? wins

  18. #108
    stinkwheelist msmola2002's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigmuz View Post
    Anyone whose system involves betting on number 13 is a moron.
    Exactly. Everyone knows you put it all on black.
    Last edited by msmola2002; 09-07-12 at 01:03 PM.

  19. #109
    *Italian Stallion* milo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigmuz View Post
    Anyone whose system involves betting on number 13 is a moron.
    I play Lotto Weekly, and one of mine numbers is 13.... In a 5 week stint recently I picked up two wins of just over $230..... And one of those wins had 13.

  20. #110
    Scaramouch seedyrom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blownhemi View Post
    One thing that stuck me was just how often the favourites don't win.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Ed View Post
    Not how most people see it though apparently.
    There's always lay punting.
    Where you bet the favourite to lose
    http://www.ramtips.me.uk/lay-betting-guide.htm

    HOW DOES LAY BETTING WORK?
    Lay betting or to 'lay a horse', as it is sometimes known refers to picking a horse - usually the first favorite - to lose a race.
    However, unlike traditional horse race betting where you 'back' a horse to win, by 'laying a horse' you effectively become a
    bookmaker so that if your horse fails to lose the race and wins then you have to pay.

  21. #111
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    Any bet that has odds set by the bookie means the bookie (unless he is destined for a very short career) has a significant advantage.

    Yes, you can generally bet AGAINST anything that youre able to bet FOR, it doesnt make it a good idea.

  22. #112
    Registered User Cantilever Bridge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigmuz View Post
    I think this is an elaborate ruse.

    However- there is a way to optimise your winnings if the numbers do line up- choose numbers >31 as most people are retards and will choose birthdays and therefore if you win using numbers under 31 you will likely share your winnings with some other retired.
    Probably the only useful bit of information for lotto... lol

    but yes this thread has brought the lulz. I would say there are pro punters/gamblers, how successful i dont know but they do exist. My old manager had a mate who played horses, not sure if it was his job or a side job but he did well from it, turned $500 my manager gave him into 1.5k over about 3/4 of a year.

    and i hate the monty hall thing, goes against my logic to switch the door! but i guess it depends if you assume the show host only opens doors with goats or if he will open a door regardless of whether it has a goat or a prize. i wont try to understand it, i probably wont be playing on a show for free cars or goats anytime soon.

  23. #113
    Registered User GSRman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by milo View Post
    I play Lotto Weekly, and one of mine numbers is 13.... In a 5 week stint recently I picked up two wins of just over $230..... And one of those wins had 13.
    while it doesn't increase the frequency of wins, due to the number of people NOT playing 13 for superstitious reasons, it will increase the payout should you have a win.

  24. #114
    fat man-bitch DavidI's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blownhemi View Post
    Did a write up on a guy in the last year or so that reckons he wins around $500K on AFL betting each year. Doesn't bet on anything else, just AFL. I'm guessing that he knows the game, team & players inside out. But that seems to be a tidy little earner. Good on him if you can do it.
    Statistically the odds of picking the winning numbers at random for lotto is one in a brazilian (I'll leave it for someone else to calculate the actual number).
    Statistically, the odds of picking the winner of a football game at random is one in two. That's no different to tossing a coin. In other words, if you tossed a coin to pick the winning team in a given football game, then bet on it, you have a better chance of winning than if oyu entered lotto, irrespective of whether you have a system or not. If you wanted to take it seriously and research the team histories, recent matches, player profiles etc you could improve the odds over random chance, which is something you simply cannot do with lotto.
    In other words, you want to win money at something randomly you're better off tossing a coin at a footy game.

  25. #115
    Registered User Winnie256's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigmuz View Post
    Anyone whose system involves betting on number 13 is a moron.
    ignorance is bliss, i'd rather be a rich idiot than a poor genius

  26. #116
    Registered User poid's Avatar
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    One thing about the vast majority of gamblers: unless they can actually document their bets and wins/losses they have won far less than they claim (and they are usually net losers). They might win over streaks, and highlight that to everyone with shit like "it bought me that TV" etc, but over the long haul the chances of them being consistent winners is very low.

    The consistent winner is the house/bookie.

  27. #117
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gruelius View Post
    and i hate the monty hall thing, goes against my logic to switch the door! but i guess it depends if you assume the show host only opens doors with goats or if he will open a door regardless of whether it has a goat or a prize. i wont try to understand it, i probably wont be playing on a show for free cars or goats anytime soon.
    The point that he purposefully only ever opens a door with a goat behind it is critical. Without that point, switching or not-switching makes no difference.
    Last edited by Mr Ed; 09-07-12 at 01:27 PM.
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  28. #118
    ARE YOU REAAAAADY? Grunt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Ed View Post
    The point that he purposefully only ever opens a door with a goat behind it is critical. Without that point, switching or not-switching makes no difference.
    this is true and i have argued this until i have been blue in the face with people. If the "dealer" or goat owner in this instance does not know where the goats are hiding ^ is correct

  29. #119
    Registered User Cantilever Bridge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidI View Post
    Statistically, the odds of picking the winner of a football game at random is one in two.
    No, its not flipping a coin, there are many non insignificant variables that could be considered.

  30. #120
    Nay sayer Mr Ed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grunt View Post
    this is true and i have argued this until i have been blue in the face with people. If the "dealer" or goat owner in this instance does not know where the goats are hiding ^ is correct
    Yep, I used to be one of those arguing against it. Once I actually listened to the point about the host/dealer, I accepted it. Now I lol at those who refuse to accept it.
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